CoRev points to figures from OIF to show that the Surge is working. Most of us have always hoped it would work, but have been skeptical it would. And certainly, US casualties seem to be down in recent months – and figures for September are actually lower than for September of 2006. So with luck, things are improving.
All that said… what does an improvement mean? Does it mean things are finally settling down? And if so, are things settling down because the ethnic cleansing in most areas is more or less complete? I believe somewhere upwards of a million people have fled to other countries, and another million or so have been displaced internally. For a country with a population under 30 million, we’re talking about a huge percentage of the population.
So… what does success in the Surge or in the War in Iraq in general mean at the end? Will the displaced be able to move back? Will Iraq be a democratic society? Will it be aligned with Iran? Will most Iraqis identify America with peace and freedom, or with Blackwater?