Sexually Transmitted Diseases – Time Trends and Likelihood of Voting for GW

The other day I had a post about a book on charitable giving and people’s political & religious affiliations. I was actually fairly late to the party… some big hitters like Powerline and Drudge commented on it approvingly. I was actually thinking of that post when I wrote this one; perhaps Powerline and Drudge and the like will be as approving of this post as they were of Brook’s book on charity, especially since I think (in all modesty) that this analysis is a bit more solid in the data department.

Y’all might recall I’ve had posts on abortions and unwed motherhood, as well as youth violence. This one is on sexually transmitted diseases. Before I post changes over time, here’s the part that the Powerlines and the Drudges might be interested in… I found data for 2004 incidences of syphillis, gonorrhea and chlamydia, by state. So it’s a simple matter to compare those to, say, how each state voted in the 2004 elections.

The table below shows the median rate (per 100,000) of each STD in states that cast more than 50% of their votes for GW, the median in states that cast less than 50% of their votes for GW, and the median rate of each STD in all states.

GW’s Pct of votes______gonorrhea___syphillis___chlamydia
> 50% of votes____110.20______1.60_______298.50
Overall median_____89.15______1.60_______299.65

The table below shows the average rate (again, per 100,000) of each STD in states that cast more than 50% of their votes for GW, the average in states that cast less than 50% of their votes for GW, and the average rate of each STD in all states.

GW’s Pct of votes______gonorrhea___syphillis___chlamydia
> 50% of votes____110.72______1.95_______322.58
Overall average____96.86______1.91_______311.10

I just don’t have enough of a sense of humor to do justice to these figures. Suffice it to say, states that voted for GW show higher average and median incidences of gonorrhea and syphilis, and a higher average incidence of chlamydia, than states that voted against him. Presumably, the states that voted for GW also lean conservative.

In case you’re interested, I also looked at how incidences of these diseases changed over time.

Note that Chlamydia figures begin in 1984. Also, I was able to find deaths from AIDS, but AIDS figures only run through 2003.
Annual percentage change in incidence rate per 100,000 (syphilis, Chlamydia, gonorrhea) and death rate per 100,000 (AIDS)

______Syphilis __Chlamydia__Gonorrhea___ AIDS
Ike_____-5.72%______NA______-1.25%______NA
JFK____-1.08%______NA_______0.86%______NA
LBJ____-6.03%______NA_______9.58%______NA
Nixon__-3.42%______NA_______10.46%______NA
Ford___-8.44%______NA_______4.11%______NA
Carter__-2.10%______NA______-1.04%______NA
Reagan__4.33%_____91.33% ___-4.74%______NA
GHW___1.09%_____20.28%___-10.24%______17.38%
Clinton_-15.89%____4.10%_____-5.12%_____-10.91%
GW____0.66%_____6.18%_____-3.09%______-3.31%

I’m kinda suspicious of the Chlamydia figures during the Reagan years. Is the massive jump because they only started looking for the disease during the Reagan years? Anyone have any idea?

Otherwise, the only thing I get out of this is that (and this is almost a refrain for someone who looks at data), trends that were going in the right direction under Clinton was reversed under GW (syphilis, chlamydia, AIDS), the trend that was going the wrong way under Clinton (gonorrhea) kept heading in the same direction under GW.

Anyone see anything else in the data?

(Aside: the quest for data that makes GW looks good continues.)

As usual, my spreadsheets are available to anyone who wants ’em.