December real retail sales: the good economic news keeps on coming – by New Deal democrat The good economic news kept coming with this morning’s retail sales report for December. Remember that this is one of my favorite indicators because, adjusted for population, it is a fairly good long leading indicator, and on a short […]
Like retail sales, motor vehicles lead the way in industrial production – by New Deal democrat As with retail sales earlier this morning, motor vehicle production is playing an outsized role in expansion this year. Industrial production as a whole rose 0.3% in September. But August was revised down by -0.2%, so on net it […]
A big jump in motor vehicle sales highlights a good September for retail sales – by New Deal democrat As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite metrics because it tells us so much about the consumer and, indirectly, the labor market and the total economy. Nominally, retail sales rose 0.7% in September, and […]
July retail sales: gas and vehicle sales continue to dominate the trend – by New Deal democrat As always, real retail sales tell us a great deal about what is happening in the consumer economy. July continued the recent trend since gas prices started declining over a year ago. Nominally retail sales increased 0.7%. Since […]
June retail sales continue to falter, with the important exception of motor vehicles – by New Deal democrat As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite indicators, because it tells us so much about the 70% of the US economy that is consumption, as well as being a short leading indicator for employment. It […]
Real retail sales continue to suggest recession, decelerating employment gains – by New Deal democrat The second of the three important datapoints this morning was retail sales for May. This is one of my favorite indicators, because it has several leading relationships, and is also an important component of one of the main data series […]
Two “fundamental” indicators for the American middle/working class and the economy – by New Deal democrat This week is a little light on data, except for housing permits and starts (Tuesday) and existing home sales (Thursday), so let me catch up on a few other indicators. In particular, two of my favorite indicators are based […]
March real retail sales lay an egg, suggests downturn in nonfarm payrolls by the end of summer – by New Deal democrat After a quiet early part of the week, today we get a deluge of data: retail sales and industrial production for March, and total business sales for February. Because real total business sales […]
November real retail sales turn down, return to negative YoY – by New Deal democrat Real retail sales is one of my favorite indicators for both the current economy and the jobs situation 3 to 6 months ahead. This morning nominal retail sales for November were reported down -0.6%, which only takes back about 1/2 […]
September real retail sales lay another egg – by New Deal democrat One of my favorite indicators, retail sales, was reported for September this morning, and it came in unchanged. Which means that after factoring in +0.4% inflation in September, real retail sales were down -0.4%. Which is not good, because real retail sales have […]