Real Q4 GDP completes the Boom of 2021, while long leading components warn of weaker 2022 to come Nominal GDP increased 6.9% in the 4th Quarter of 2021. After taking into account inflation, it increased 1.7% The last six economic quarters together have been the biggest economic Boom since 1983-84, as shown in the below […]

Update: Paul Krugman at Conscience of a Liberal points to Spencer England’s post in his column 8/1…Dan I thought it would be interesting to post this chart of real private GDP in recoveries. It clearly shows that since the great moderation we have experienced three recoveries that compared to previous recoveries were very weak.  Whether […]

It’s not just that you make a mistake; it’s that you cling desperately to that mistake and let it define you. Katrina revealed George W. Bush’s basic incompetence in a way that 9/11, Afghanistan, and Iraq had not. So he was weak going into the 2006 midterms. There were going to be losses. No one […]

by Mike Kimel The Historical Relationship Between the Economy and the S&P 500, Part 3: The S&P 500 and the Employment to Population Ratio A few weeks ago, I had two posts looking at the relationship between the S&P 500 and real GDP (Part 1 and Part 2). The first post noted that using data […]

by Mike Kimel The Historical Relationship Between the S&P 500 and the Economy, Part 2: The Abrupt Rise of Short Term Investing Last week I had a post looking at how long it takes for events in the economy (in the guise of real GDP) to affect the stock market (represented by the S&P 500), […]