Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Presidents, Congress, and Economic Growth – The Return of Presimetrics

by Mike Kimel Presidents, Congress, and Economic Growth – The Return of Presimetrics If you’re a regular reader, you may know that a couple of years ago, Michael Kanell of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and I had a book published called Presimetrics. Nobody much read the book, but we had a lot of fun writing it. […]

Taxes and Economic Growth: Real World & Simulations

by Mike Kimel Taxes and Economic Growth: Real World & Simulations Over the past few years, I’ve posted many times on an unpleasant reality: despite the fact that so many people believe otherwise, in general, lower taxes do not result in faster economic growth. It is really too bad, because we could all be better […]

Explaining Why Low Tax Rates are Correlated with Slower Economic Growth, Once Again

by Mike Kimel Explaining Why Low Tax Rates are Correlated with Slower Economic Growth, Once Again One of the regular mysteries facing economists is why the US economy fails to display evidence of a relationship that everyone seems to accept implicitly, namely that lower taxes lead to (or even are correlated with) faster economic growth. […]

The Peltzman Effect: Why Economic Growth Has Slowed in the US Over Time

by Mike Kimel (Update: Naked Capitalism notes Mike’s post is the top read of the day in ‘links’) In recent years, there have been a number of studies showing that generational income mobility is particularly low in the US. To quote this 2006 study by Tom Hertz: By international standards, the United States has an […]

A Random Observation About the 1970s… and the 1980s

by Mike Kimel A Random Observation About the 1970s… and the 1980s People often point to the stagnation of the 1970s, and the Reagan administration that followed, as evidence that cutting taxes leads to faster economic growth. But the same folks rarely look at the flip-side of things, and when they do, they don’t reach […]

A Modest Forecast: The Average Real Growth in Ireland will Exceed 10% a Year From 2012 to 2014

by Mike Kimel A Modest Forecast: The Average Real Growth in Ireland will Exceed 10% a Year From 2012 to 2014  You read the title correctly: the Irish economy will grow by more than 10% next year. Now, hearing that, you might be asking yourself: “Is this guy for real? He must be nuts.”  Because […]

American v. Brazilian Healthcare, a Continuing Series

by Mike Kimel American v. Brazilian Healthcare, a Continuing Series I spoke to my sister on Skype last night. She’s been in Natal, in Northeastern Brazil, for the past few months. Last week, she noticed a couple small warts growing on her leg. So she wandered down to a government run hospital and and had […]

A Simple Question about NGDP Targeting

by Mike Kimel A Simple Question about NGDP Targeting It seems that a big part of the econosphere these days talks about NGDP targeting. Translating this into English, a number of economists believe the Fed should be adjusting monetary policy to achieve a desired level of nominal GDP in any given year. To be very […]

The Numbers Behind Newt’s Plan to Balance the Budget

by Mike Kimel The Numbers Behind Newt’s Plan to Balance the Budget Newt Gingrich’s website provides information on The Gingrich Jobs and Prosperity Plan. It starts with this: America only works when Americans are working. Newt has a pro-growth strategy similar to the proven policies used when he was Speaker to balance the budget, pay […]