Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Many types of tech, not just robots

by Mike Kimel

Many types of tech – not just robots – have been affecting and are going to affect the service sector. When someone develops an inexpensive sign you can stick on top of television sets, racks of clothes, or appliances that will change itself whenever someone in the headquarters decides to change the price of the product, its going to eliminate entire departments of people (or move them to doing something else), plus reduce the workload at every retail store in the system.

(The normal cadence for us is to enter prices more than a week before they take effect. We do have over-rides that allow the process to take place in 24 hours, but the amount of work needed to reduce errors
in that process is mind-boggling, not to mention wasteful given it results in hard printing of the wrong signs as well as the right signs.)

As of yet, I’m not sure automation reduced white collar work. What it has done is created a race to efficiency. Now companies scrape competitor data. They analyze prices to try to determine which generate highest margins. They analyze floor plans for the same purpose. I cannot imagine that being done 10 years ago – both in my previous life as a consultant, and my current life working for a major retailer, we can barely get the data systems to provide the data for those types of analysis properly now. Ten years ago it would have been impossible anywhere outside the military. Ten years from now, data pulls that I need an analyst to spend a week and a half doing, and then another week and a half cleaning, will be spit out in minutes (I hope). That analyst won’t be pulling data and organizing it – I’ll have her doing analysis instead. Margins will be even tighter because all our competitors will be doing the same analysis, without which nobody survives.

Where the job losses will come from is not that my employer or its competitors will have fewer analysts, because, as I noted, more analysis will be needed just to stay competitive. Instead, it will come from shuttering some of the companies in the field. There will be fewer retailers – and they’ll all be bigger.

Mike

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1/24/12 Links worth noting: Germany rejects Swiss banking secrecy deal; Labor Devaluation

1/24/12  Links worth noting by Linda Beale:

Germany rejects Swiss banking secrecy deal;   Labor Devaluation 

David Jolly, German Lawmakers Reject Swiss Tax Deal, New York Times (Nov. 23, 2012).
The US and other countries like Germany have been pressing the Swiss on their bank secrecy, which allows U.S. and other foreign citizens to establish bank accounts without the knowledge of the home country and thus hide assets and income from home-country taxation.  The US passed laws (called by the acronym “FATCA”) that require foreign banks to actively report information on US accountholders.   The hope is that every country will recognize the harm done to tax systems by banking secrecy and join in imposing similar information-reporting requirements.

The Swiss, meanwhile, have been trying to circumvent universal adoption of such laws.  See, e.g., Nicholas Shaxson, A scheme designed to net trillions from tax haves is being scuppered, Guardian.com (Nov. 22, 2012).   Britain, Luxemburg and Austria are cited as being in the forefront of the scuttling movement:  Britain, for example, has entered into a “Rubrik Agreement” with the Swiss.

The Swiss thought they had a deal with Germany.  This would be a bilateral deal in which the Swiss agree to an upfront payment in lieu of any back taxes on the accounts and then agree to act as tax collector for the foreign government on the accounts, thus maintaining secret the identity of the foreign taxpayers.
Such an agreement is problematic for two reasons:  (i) it requires the foreign government to trust the Swiss banks to pay the right amount over in taxes and (ii) it undermines the drive to eliminate offshore banking secrecy as a cover for tax evasion.

Transparency in international banking and taxation matters would require that banks provide information on accounts held by foreigners to the foreigners’ home jurisdictions, without any account-specific or accountholder-specific request required.  The reason for a more transparent rule is that otherwise the home jurisdiction has to have information it does not have (who has an account at a Swiss bank) before it can ask for the information it needs to ferret out who has such an account and may be engaging in tax evasion.  The biggest cracks in banking secrecy have thus come from  whistleblowers and opportunists who sell account-holder information to purchasing jurisdictions.

Friday, the Germans rejected–for now at least–a German-Swiss deal supported by Chancellor Merkel that had been two years in the making.  France is apparently also considering rethinking a similar deal.
The Swiss leverage was clearly stated by Swiss banking official Mario Tuor, who “noted that without a deal, the status quo would remain: German officials can seek specific information from the Swiss government on people suspected of tax evasion, or go back to buying data stolen from Swiss banks. ‘With an agreement, every German taxpayer in Switzerland would be taxed,’ Mr. Tuor said.” German Lawmakers Reject Swiss Tax Deal

The Steady Devaluation of Labor, Two Half Hitches (Feb. 2012).

This is an oldie but goodie, one worth reminding you of (or calling to your attention for the first time).
[The] minimum wage, in constant dollars, has had its ups and downs since 1970 but the overall trend indicated by the straight black line is down. The numbers show that the American economy puts less value on the entry level worker than it did in 1970. Why is that? Are minimum wage workers less intelligent now than they were forty years ago? Are they lazier?

The reason probably has a lot to do with the rise of the global economy and cheaper Chinese labor. It may also have to do with basic attitudes toward labor. Some see labor as a commodity, while others believe it is not. 

***
Representative Steve King (R-IA) on the floor of the House of Representatives last year:

“Labor is a commodity just like corn or beans or oil or gold, and the value of it needs to be determined by the competition, supply and demand in the workplace.”

***
Samuel Gompers, cigar maker-turned-labor organizer and founder of the American Federation of Labor in the early 20th Century, had a different business ethic related to labor and said this:

“You cannot weigh the human soul in the same scales with a piece of pork.”

Labor advocates actually managed to insert a statement affirming the status of human labor in the 1914 Clayton Antitrust Act“The labor of a human being is not a commodity or article of commerce.”

cross posted with ataxingmatter

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Wages driven down, now relative to market you’re over paid!

Update: spelling corrected in title.

I heard and then went to look see that Caterpillar is working hard to control it’s costs.

“Despite earning a record $4.9 billion profit last year and projecting even better results for 2012, the company is insisting on a six-year wage freeze and a pension freeze for most of the 780 production workers at its factory here. Caterpillar says it needs to keep its labor costs down to ensure its future competitiveness.” 

It has purchased 17 other business since 2008, 9 were non US companies. Two companies were purchased in 2011. Here’s the thing, a 6 year freeze? I guess there will be no inflation? I mean like zero. Though economist are saying inflation is needed as part of the solution to our slow economy. Of course, Obama having frozen government wages, I guess Caterpillar is just being patriotic. Nothing like We the People blazing the trail for how we want the private sector to treat We the People.

Caterpillar made $4.9 billion profit. If they raised these people’s pay $10,000 each, your only talking $7.8 million. It is 0.159% (0.00159)of Caterpillar’s profit. Inflation has averaged since 2008 about 2.075%.  Giving the worker $10,000 more per year does not equal the inflation rate as a share of the profit. If the worker were getting their due based on inflation they would get a piece of $101,675,000. This would be $130,352.56 each for the 780 workers. Caterpillar would still have $4,798,325,000.00 profit. Imagine what that $130,352.56 would do for the economy in Joliet! I’ll bet Caterpillar equipment sales would rise do to demand for construction.

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More on Markets and Neoliberalism from Crooked Timber

Actual markets in the American economy are extremely rare and unusual beasts. An economics of markets ought to be regarded as generally useful as a biology of cephalopods, amid the living world of bones and shells. But, somehow the idealized, metaphoric market is substituted as an analytic mask, laid across a vast variety of economic relations and relationships, obscuring every important feature of what actually is. And, then we wonder why the “thinking” and policy debates that result are stupid and corrupt.
—  Bruce Wilder

Emphasis added.   This is in the context of a critique of neoloberalism, here described by Henry Farrell:

In fact, it is not free markets with vigorous competition among producers, but instead, a mixture of big firm oligopoly and cosy and frequently corrupt relationships between state officials, who have been told to subcontract out parts of government, and the businesses which supply these new services, in what is at best a murky approximation to a real marketplace. You can read this as a statement that classical liberalism has some good points as well as some bad ones. You can equally well read it as saying (and this is the more fundamental point), that regardless of whether or not classical realism had some good arguments, these don’t have anything much to do with actually-existing-neoliberalism which is a crony capitalist fantasy.

This lays bare the greed, dishonesty, corruption and manipulation inherent to neoliberalism, and simultaneously exposes the concept of “the market” as an absurd quirk of the typical economist’s imagination.

Each of these meaty comments is highly worthy of recognition.  The cephalopod reference made the first one utterly irresistible, and prompted this post.

The bad news is that there doesn’t seem to be any way out.


Here, John Quiggin provides a good functional definition of neolibealism – the first I’ve ever seen – and a very thoughtful critique of neoliberalism as a political cum economic ideology.

The core of the neoliberal program is
(i) to remove the state altogether from ‘non-core’ functions such as the provision of infrastructure services
(ii) to minimise the state role in core functions (health, education, income security) through contracting out, voucher schemes and so on
(iii) to reject redistribution of income except insofar as it is implied by the provision of a basic ‘safety net’.

Quiggin judges neoliberaism to be a failure, for different reasons in different places.  I’m going to quibble with his definition of failure, type iii, though: a failure to deliver the promised outcomes.  With a focus in the inherent dishonesty and corruption inherent to neoliberalism, I can only view it as highly successful in the U.S.  This is because there is a real hidden agenda lurking behind the false public agenda.
 
Wilder describes how it works in a follow-up comment: (Be sure to read the whole thing.)

Neoliberalism, it seems to me, uses the myth of the market, to rationalize rule-making, which serves the rentiers (is dynamically inefficient) and which promotes authoritarian, and therefore unfair, resolution of conflict.

Quiggin describes the type iii failure in the U.S:  “The basic problem is that, given high levels of inequality, very strong economic performance is required to match the levels of economic security and social services delivered under social democracy even with mediocre growth outcomes.”  Of course, no such strong economic performance is forthcoming.

However, the real agenda is not general economic security.  Quite to the contrary, it is to maximize and maintain a high level of inequality, such that the small, elite minority has absolute control over the impoverished majority, precisely because their economic security is severely limited.  I cite as evidence the extreme form of 21st Century Republican party neoliberalism, which even attacks the existence of a basic safety net.  Note also their ongoing attacks against labor unions, health care reform, and education at all levels.

The job is not yet complete, but I have to view the record of neoliberalism in the U.S., to date, as a smashing success.

I posted this on my blog in slightly different form as a Quote of the Day entry. But it makes such a fitting companion piece to Dan’s from earlier today that I decided to put it up here, as well.

 H/T to Unlearningecon

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Discussion at Crooked Timber on ‘what are markets’

Well, sort of on markets.
There is an interesting conversation going on at Crooked Timber our public debate in the econosphere and political rhetoric . Henry posts on the use of arguments over the term neo-liberalism and finishes with:

For what it’s worth, I think that the open information agenda, and the political inequality agenda have a lot more in common than most people think (I have been planning for some time to do more writing on this over the next year). I think it would be a lot more useful to frame the argument as one between different ways of restructuring markets so as to tackle problems of inequality at their source than as one between neo-liberalism and its critics

Lifted from comments,  Bruce Wilder offers this observation:

To a large extent, we are all intellectual victims of economists, dead and otherwise, who really do not know what they are talking about. The main problem with the standard analysis of the “market economy”, as well as many variants, is that we do not live in a “market economy”. Except for financial markets and a few related commodity markets, markets are rare beasts in the modern economy. The actual economy is dominated by formal, hierarchical, administrative organization and transactions are governed by incomplete contracts, explicit and implied. “Markets” are, at best, metaphors.

The elaborate theory of market price gives us an abstract ideal of allocative efficiency, in the absence of any firm or household behaving strategically (aka perfect competition). In real life, allocative efficiency is far less important than achieving technical efficiency, and, of course, everyone behaves strategically.
In a world of genuine uncertainty and limitations to knowledge, incentives in the distribution of income are tied directly to the distribution of risk. Economic rents are pervasive, but potentially beneficial, in that they provide a means of stable structure, around which investments can be made and production processes managed to achieve technical efficiency.
In the imaginary world of complete information of Econ 101, where markets are the dominant form of economic organizations, and allocative efficiency is the focus of attention, firms are able to maximize their profits, because they know what “maximum” means. They are unconstrained by anything.
In the actual, uncertain world, with limited information and knowledge, only constrained maximization is possible. All firms, instead of being profit-maximizers (not possible in a world of uncertainty), are rent-seekers, responding to instituted constraints: the institutional rules of the game, so to speak. Economic rents are what they have to lose in this game, and protecting those rents, orients their behavior within the institutional constraints. Those constraints are in the nature of a public good, and if that public good is well-provided, the behavior is socially beneficial and technically efficient.
It is within this context, that risk and innovation (aka, changing institutional structure) can pay off.
So, yes, licensing barbers can make perfect sense. It creates a small economic rent, and if that rent is tied effectively to barbers being scrupulous about safe and healthy technical practice, that’s a economic benefit. The gain is in technical efficiency, not allocative efficiency.

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"The Treadmill and the Poor Law are in full vigour, then?”

by run 75441

The Treadmill and the Poor Law are in full vigour, then?” A Christmas Carol, Charles Dickens

That’s Baloney” stated Rep. Micky Hammon, R-Decatur, Alabama; the immigration bill cosponsor, told the Huntsville Times.

It’s clear the study over estimates the negative and under estimates the positive to skew the result toward an agenda,” Hammon said. “If 40,000 illegal workers leave the state, they free up jobs that homegrown Alabamians are happy to have.”
 The Cost of Alabama Immigration Law (H.B. 56) Disputed.

Alabama has the lowest unemployment rate among seven southeastern states,” the spokeswoman for Governor Robert Bentley said.

I recently completed a quip to Senator Levin of Michigan who was commenting on the fall of the unemployment rate in Michigan and his plan to jump on the deficit reduction bandwagon at the same time. I thought by now most states and the relative “pols” would know a drop in U3 state wide or nationally does not necessarily mean an increase in employment. If the Civilian Labor Force drops in numbers because people give up looking for work, than it is possible for U3 to decrease. This is precisely what has happened in Alabama.

People are dropping off unemployment rolls because they’ve become discouraged by not being able to find a job and have stopped looking, according to an analysis by Arise Citizens’ Policy Project. Alabama’s labor force shrank by more than 6,000 workers in October, and the labor force has been shrinking since June. Economists say a shrinking labor force makes it easier for a state to post an unemployment rate decline, even if job growth is small.” …Analysis shows a steep drop in the state’s unemployment rate isn’t because of Alabama’s overreaching immigration law”
Birmingham News


It appears kicking the illegal immigrants out of Alabama doesn’t do much for getting people back to work. Maybe those UAW jobs which did not require more than a high school education and a good work ethic were not as bad as some Senators made them out to be?

“Are there no prisons? Are there no workhouses?” A Christmas Carol, Charles Dickens

It appears those students who went to Law School, shelled out $100,000 or more to get the exclusive Juris Doctorate, and as a result expected to make the big bucks. They were sadly disappointed when they could not find a job even with the best of credentials. So what does a newly minted attorney to do? Of course, sue the School of Law which they attended for false advertising.

“Adam Bevelacqua graduated from Brooklyn Law School last year with $100,000 in debt but high hopes for his future. He passed the bar on his first try in New York and had internships to highlight on his resume. And, according to his research, the school’s job placement rate for new graduates was between 90 to 95 percent. But Bevelacqua, 29, is no longer as optimistic.

“I’ve been looking for work ever since,” Bevelacqua told msnbc.com. “The jobs aren’t really there.”
On Wednesday, Bevelacqua joined 50 other law school graduates from across the country who sued their alma maters, alleging they were misled about job prospects and burdened with huge amounts of student debt.”
MSNCB News Law schools face lawsuits over job-placement claims

The state of Alabama and Jefferson County are in need of good and cheap attorneys to defend the H.B. 56 law and to process Jefferson County’s bankruptcy. The going rate right now is $1 million per month or enough to fund a few attorneys. Maybe the law labour has to relocate and go to where the demand is? Any takers???

“Please Sir, I want some more.” Oliver,” Charles Dickens

The Center for Progressive Studies Looks at  Immigrants and the Child Tax Credit”
In order to fund the Payroll Tax Credit and instead of whacking the 1% of the taxpayers making > $500,000 annually; Congress has decided to whack the children of immigrants. Parents claiming a tax credit using the ITIN must now provide a Social Security number. Most likely, they do not have a legitimate SS number. Isn’t this like the feudal wars? Knights on horseback slaughtering the serfs and the peasants (Bruce?).

Benefits of the Child Tax Credit

2.3 million: The number of people, including 1.3 million children, who were kept out of poverty by the child tax credit in 2009.

$1,800: The average amount claimed in child tax credits by ITIN filers in 2010.

3: The number of months for which a family of four with two children could put food on the table using the average child tax credit refund under the Department of Agriculture’s “Thrifty Food Plan.”

$1.38: The amount of economic growth that results from every $1 spent on child tax credits. Not all tax cuts are created equal, though. The payroll tax holiday results in $1.25 of economic growth for every $1 spent, while making the Bush tax cuts permanent would result in $0.35 per dollar.

4 million: The number of U.S.-born children whose families would be affected by the proposed offset.

20 percent: The amount of the payroll tax holiday extension that would be offset by raising taxes on lower-income immigrant parents of American children. The payroll tax holiday extension is worth $120 billion. The proposed legislation to offset the tax cut, however, will, by conservatives’ own calculations, save a total of only $24 billion over 10 years.

About $100 billion: The amount of payroll taxes that will be contributed by ITIN filers over the next 10 years. These taxes contribute to the trust funds for Medicare and Social Security—programs from which immigrants will never recoup benefits because of their status.

$21,240: The average household income for ITIN filers claiming additional child tax credit refunds in 2010. This is less than half of the 2010 median household income in the United States of $49,445, and would mean that a family of four with two children was living below the poverty line. Latino children are more likely to be living in poverty than any other racial or ethnic group in the United States.

But injustice breeds injustice; the fighting with shadows and being defeated by them necessitates the setting up of substances to combat.” Bleak House, Charles Dickens; February 7th . . . belated Happy Birthday!

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Cowen and truck driving jobs in North Dakota

by Mike Kimel

Tyler Cowen has a post on truck driving jobs in North Dakota:

My poking around showed that some of them start at 75k a year, though with raises for good performance.

The implication, of course – why don’t unemployed people move to North Dakota and drive trucks for good wages rather than stick around and collect unemployment?

I’ve got a theory:

Figure 1

Screenshot from Job Service North Dakota, run by the State Gov’t of North Dakota.

Advertised wages for light truck drivers are quite a bit lower ($21,736 for entry level).



More generally, I imagine there is a reason why unemployed relatively unskilled people, in, say, Lincoln, Nebraska don’t go through the expense of moving their families to Bismark and taking the coursework needed to get certified in order to get a job paying $32K a year or to do the equivalent to become a roughneck at a gas boomtown, even ignoring the fact that the jobs pay less than outsiders believe and the costs of taking them are greater. See… we’ve been through this before many times.

The boom in the new skillset often ends before the new entrants can recoup their investment in gaining the skillset. And not just for the unskilled. Ask the folks who flocked to Silicon Valley in the 1990s for those great jobs as programmers. I’m sure you can find someone who drove out to Palo Alto in 1996 who is still programming and making north of $175K to boot but I’m guessing those people are huge outliers, not the trendline.

Disclosure. I’m now currently looking for a full time job. Given the severance package I accepted from my previous employer and since I have some consulting work to do, I’m pretty sure I’m neither eligible for unemployment benefits nor able to move to North Dakota to train for an exciting new career hauling cargo.

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The current labor market expansion: third poorest performer 24 months after the recession’s end since 1948

It’s now two years after the end of the Great Recession, and the unemployment rate has ticked downward just 9 pps (percentage points) since its 10.1% peak. Pundits call this an expansion since GDP has fully retraced its recession losses; but the unemployment rate tells a very different story.

(click to enlarge)


The chart illustrates the unemployment rate after 24 months since each recession’s end spanning 1948 to June 2011. The business cycle dates are set by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The rates are indexed to the first month of each cyclical recovery for comparison, and the raw data are referenced in the table at the end of this post.

MORE AFTER THE JUMP!

Spanning the business cycles since 1948, the average decline in the unemployment rate is 20 pps from its peak to 24 months after the recession’s end. In the ’07-’09 ‘expansion’, the unemployment rate has fallen by less than half the average, -9 pps since the first month of recovery, July 2009.

In terms of relative labor market performance 24 months into the recovery/expansion, this cycle is the fourth worst – really the third worst since 24 months into the 1980 recovery is the 1981-1982 recession.

Technically, we’re not seeing a jobless recovery, since the unemployment rate peaked early on in the recovery (month 4); but it might as well be. Sticking with the household survey, employment (as opposed to the nonfarm payroll) is down by near 7 million since the economic peak and down 644 thousand since the recession’s trough. Yes, employment is net down since the recession ended. These numbers are affected by the annual population controls, but the trend (or lack thereof) is loud and clear.

The labor market is festering – we need a real policy response now.

Rebecca Wilder

Chart data (before index construction)

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The US unemployment rate: European levels without the European safety net

Jobs growth is a lagging indicator of economic activity, so the June report confirms that the US economy has been in a deep rut (Marshall Auerback calls it a ‘fully-fledged New York City style pot hole’). Yes, the US economy is growing; but sub-2% really ‘feels’ like stagnation, if not recession for many. As always, Spencer provides a fantastic summary of the employment report here on AB: ‘bad news’, he says.

I call it abysmal, both relative to history and on a cross section. The chart below illustrates the unemployment rates across the G7 spanning 1995 to 2011.

Across the G7 economies, the level of the US unemployment rate is second only to France. This is true on a harmonized basis as well.
READ MORE AFTER THE JUMP!

The speed at which the US unemployment rate reached European levels was abrupt. Only the UK has seen such a swift deterioration in labor market conditions.

The chart above illustrates the same time series as in the first unemployment chart, but the rates are indexed to 2005 for comparability. France’s high level of unemployment is structural. In contrast, the US level of unemployment is NOT, not even close.

The chart above illustrates the components of the OECD’s indicators of employment protection. Also, see a short note by the Dallas Fed highlighting the differences between the French and US labor markets (and the 1994 OECD jobs study).

The French labor market is quite rigid, which leads to a structurally elevated unemployment rate and expansive unemployment compensation (see this follow up to the OECD 1994 jobs strategy report). The US Labor markets is much more fluid, which is why the unemployment rate has surged relative to comparable economies in Europe (see second chart).

European levels of unemployment without the European safety net.

The chart illustrates the maximum number of months that a worker can claim unemployment insurance for the year 2007. In normal times, French workers can collect benefits for up to 23 months by law, where the US worker collects for just 6 months. The tax and benefit policies data are updated infrequently, and listed on the OECD’s website (excel file link).

Seriously, shouldn’t Congress be focused on the depressed state of the US labor market, rather than a ‘scaled back’ version of deficit cutting? Addressing one will clearly impact the other – it goes both ways. Unfortunately, the government’s pushing in the wrong direction (cutting deficits brings further unemployment rather reducing unemployment drops the deficits).

Rebecca Wilder

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Who cares about the unemployed…

…it seems that way, at least, when I listen to much of the rhetoric coming out of Washington.

But it’s not just Washington, it’s Wall Street, too. In my line of work, finance, market participants grapple with the monthly economic data flow, eyeing each release as if it’s telling a new story about the current prospect for US economic growth – that it isn’t just treading water. ‘Consensus’ economists forecast their expectations for the economic release of the day, the market then trades based on the surprise to which the data beat or disappointed expectations. Day in, day out, that’s what we do.

I have a problem with this automated way of viewing the world. It’s tough to hear Wall Street economists defend their forecasts, stating that ‘oil’ or ‘Europe’ are the primary risks to the outlook; or that the structural unemployment rate has risen markedly so that harmful inflation is right around the corner. Step back, take a look at where 2.7% annual growth (current Consensus for 2011) actually gets the US labor market (see chart below).

The biggest risk to the outlook is not oil, it’s unemployment. The longer that the labor market remains idle – in fact, the labor force is now trending downward – the lower will the average skill level will go. Then you’re going to get something much more structural, the so-called positive feedback loop.

READ MORE AFTER THE JUMP!

People move to the US for the American Dream – I wonder where they’ll go now…. Germany?


The chart above illustrates the harmonized G7 unemployment rates indexed to 2007 for comparability. The latest readings (June mostly) are listed in the legend.

The US labor market, as measured by the unemployment rate, deteriorated much more precipitously than that in any other G7 country. Germany stands out as the sole labor market that’s shown any marked improvement, furthering a trend that started with the the Hartz Concept. (I just did a Google search of the Hartz commission and came across this Economist article written in 2002 – remarkable.)

Policy drives the structural level of unemployment, not the other way around. In the US, there are currently no true boundaries to the supply of labor, rather it’s demand. Congress should be targeting job creation and aggregate demand, not the 2012 elections.

Stephen Gandel is right: there is no upside to high unemployment, just downside. You want to drop the deficit? Create jobs and aggregate demand so that the population ‘can’ pay taxes.

Rebecca Wilder

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