Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The importance of 10 (and 20) year new highs in interest rates

The importance of 10 (and 20) year new highs in interest rates  – by New Deal democrat As you may have already read elsewhere, interest rates on the 10 year US Treasury just made a new 10+ year high. Perhaps more importantly, 30 year mortgage rates made a new 20+ year high: Both rates are slightly […]

Interest rates, the yield curve, and the Fed chasing a Phantom (lagging) Menace

Interest rates, the yield curve, and the Fed chasing a Phantom (lagging) Menace There’s a lot going on with interest rates in the past few days. Mortgage rates have increased above 7%: This is the highest rate since 2008. Needless to say, if it lasts for any period of time it will further damage the […]

The worst interest rate upturn since 1994

The worst interest rate upturn since 1994 is likely to produce the worst housing downturn in over a decade No economic news of note today; but tomorrow we will see housing permits and starts for March, and on Wednesday existing home sales. So let’s take an important look at housing. The recent increase in mortgage […]

The worst interest rate upturn since 1994 is likely to produce the worst housing downturn in over a decade

The worst interest rate upturn since 1994 is likely to produce the worst housing downturn in over a decade No economic news of note today; but tomorrow we will see housing permits and starts for March, and on Wednesday existing home sales. So let’s take an important look at housing. The recent increase in mortgage […]

August housing construction shows stabilization, following interest rate moderation

August housing construction shows stabilization, following interest rate moderation This morning’s report on August housing permits and starts shows that the stabilizing of mortgage rates in the past few months has now stabilized housing construction. Housing starts increased 3.9% m/m, and total permits increased 6.0%. The less volatile single-family permits increased 0.6%. As a result, […]

Will A Rise in Interest Rates Lead to a New Debt Crisis?

by Joseph Joyce Will A Rise in Interest Rates Lead to a New Debt Crisis? The question of when the Federal Reserve will begin to reverse its loose policy stance continues to be a topic of widespread speculation. At last month’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, its members showed a willingness to cut back on asset […]

How the Fed Cornered the Long Bond

Fed Treasury Holdings 5-7-2014 The above link should take you to a PDF showing the Fed’s System Open Market Accounts holdings of Treasury Bonds and Notes which the second link will tell you comprise $2.224 trillion of the total $4.017 trillion of SOMA Holdings, with that total including $1.631 trillion of Fannie and Freddie Mac […]

U.S. Federal Intergenerational Debt: Rendered and Layered

It is a common trope among Austerians that the U.S. is passing on unsustainable debt to our children and grandchildren. And certainly there are some scary numbers out there, for example “$17.4 trillion!!” A very real number. But maybe it would be useful to render that number down so as to calculate real incidence of […]