Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

German Construction Is Looking a Bit ‘Bubbly’

by Rebecca Wilder German Construction Is Looking a Bit ‘Bubbly’ Eurostat released its volume-adjusted estimate of construction for April (release here, .pdf). Over the month, Euro area construction declined 2.75% following a large 11.41% monthly increase in March. Across the countries that make monthly data available (8 countries total), Slovenia and Portugal saw the largest […]

The "Standard" of The Price of Gold is This Century’s DeBoers

I’m writing a few long posts—you’ve been warned—but that machine doesn’t have Internet access right now.* So I’m just going to point to Kash, who writes about something else: In looking at the data I was struck by how small (relatively) the worldwide market for gold really is. That means that relatively small inflows of […]

Random Notes on Economics, Music, and Death–and a Bleg

Excess Rents Datapoint of the Day: Since the NYT doesn’t pay Paul Krugman for his blog posts, why should reading those count as part of the “20 free articles” non-subscribers are allowed? I want the Grapelli track, but not enough to pay for a six-CD set. This—built by government employees—is the greatest accomplishment in music […]

The Case is Made Clearly

The only time I personally owned MSFT stock was just after Thomas Penfield Jackson’s second break-up ruling, when there might have been an upside. I sold it shortly after the Appeals Court nixed the only good idea—breakup—in favor of “let them pay a fine to be determined, and let them dawdle long enough that the […]

BOND BUBBLE?

Many are talking about the bond market being the latest bubble. But it looks more like the press is just seeing bubbles everywhere. To me a bubble happens when everyone starts believing something that probably is not true. For example in the 1990’s investors started thinking that the long term earnings growth of the S&P […]

Measuring Bubbles

Brad DeLong and John Cochrane agree on something. I must dissent. Delong and Cochrane agree that “The underlying decline in wealth from the housing bust was … around $400 billion. …” Indeed, relative to the size of the economy the losses during the crash of the dot-com bubble were four times as large. I object […]

This May Make Robert Shiller and SocSec recipients happy…

but it doesn’t do that much for the rest of us. Via The Ambrosini Critique, Scott Sumner discovers there was no housing crash: The BLS claims that housing prices are up 2.1% in the last 12 months….According to the BLS, housing makes up nearly 40% of the core basket of goods and services. Further reading […]

Noted for the Record, Failed Bank edition

With today’s (well, yesterday’s) five closings, the total of failings of U.S. banks since March of last year to 69. Of those, slightly more than 20% (14) are from the state of Georgia. Excepting the much larger California, there have been more failings in Georgia than in any two other states combined. Also as a […]

Yankee Interlude

I’m not really paying attention to (major league) baseball this year, so I should probably leave this to Scott, but, as a query: For all team that was supposed to have had a major improvement in its middle relief this year, the Yankees appear to have given up a large number (>=7) of runs in […]

Nobody Could Have Predicted, Volume CCCXL

McGill University Macroeconomics Comprehension Exam, May 2003, Question 10 (Essay): The stock market bubble burst in the spring of 2000. The popular pres now talks about a housing bubble, referring to ever rising prices of houses in North America (and elsewhere). They say that if the housing bubble bursts it will have a much more […]