Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Prognostications January to August

by One Salient Oversight Things are progessing swimmingly For me, that is… in terms of my economical prognostication. So I’ll beat my own drum yet again – I know you’re all sick of someone saying “I told you so” but I still can’t understand why high priced financial analysts can make a living out of […]

Stagflation

by reader One Salient Oversight My definition of stagflation Is when Unemployment is 5% or more and when Inflation is 5% or more at the same time. According to the raw data at the Misery Index site, the US experienced my definition of stagflation during the following periods: July 1970 – February 1971 (Unemployment average […]

Capability gaps

by reader ilsm If the capability “gaps” were properly characterized, the whittle this week demonstrates that technical processes are not executed to deliver the capability to close the “gap”. GAO again gives some findings to work from. “A Knowledge Based Funding Approach Could Improve Major Weapon System Program Outcomes”. July 2008. The finding include: “For […]

The Depression and Post WW II Recessions

Since others agreed in the prior post that the depression chart would be better in real dollars rather than nominal dollars I though I would take this opportunity to post this chart. In business cycle analysis if you use NBER official terminology the cyle should be divided into three phases. The first is recession from […]

Added commentary on questionable economic analysis

Moon of Alabama used this chart to chat about Schlaes. GDP numbers according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (bigger graph) A. Smoot Hawley Tariff ActThe first misstep according to Shlaes was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act which increased tariffs on imports to the U.S. by up to 50%. It was put into law in June […]

SOCIAL SECURITY: Unpacking the Lies

op-ed by reader coberly SOCIAL SECURITY: Unpacking the Lies Social Security is not difficult to explain. The difficulty comes because EVERYONE has been hearing stories about Social Security that are not true. And they have been hearing them their whole lives, so they believe them in their bones. They do not know that these stories […]

Passive makes for never proven guilty…of anything.

Harpers has an article worth reading on Mukasey and his recent statements regarding former Justice Department hiring practices. Notice the lack of consequences and the lack of actual actions on his part to fix the problem…it is now standard practice from my reading of the statement. The conduct described in those reports is disturbing. The […]

Mish and Rdan similar comment guidelines

Mish says: Comment Guidelines: Comments should be succinct, constructive and relevant to the story. We encourage engaging, diverse and meaningful commentary. Comments that include personal attacks, racial, religious, or ethnic slurs are not permitted. We continuously review and remove any inappropriate comments.

The Dollar and Exports

Before we get to carried away about the impact of the weak dollar on US trade, and especially exports I suggest we look at some recent history. See the previous post. This chart has the dollar inverted, so remember the dollar was strong in the 1990s and weak since 2000. What this shows is that […]

Cafe Hayek asks for the same commenting style as Rdan asks

Don Boudreaux at Cafe Hayek requests readers to stay cool and think. To quote: Although I seldom agree with him (her?), I’m glad that Muirgeo has returned to commenting on posts here at the Cafe. Indeed, because I seldom agree with him I’m glad that he’s returned. I ask everyone who comments here to treat […]