Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Joe Biden’s roll out of a new student loan forgiveness plan

The Biden administration will soon roll out a new student loan forgiveness proposal that could impact millions of Americans. For years, Joe Biden has been against Student Loan forgiveness. Now he is seeking forgiveness for making student loans totally unforgiveable. The proposed student loan program is smaller in scope than President Joe Biden’s first education debt relief plan which the Supreme Court ultimately […]

March jobs report: almost uniformly positive, making a “soft landing” the default 2024 scenario

In sum, this month’s report was very much consistent with a “soft landing” scenario, which must be regarded as the default outcome at this point. Read-on for the details . . . – by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent […]

Freedom Echoing: A legislative fix for health care?

by Kip Sullivan JD This is a long one covering managed care and value-based care healthcare in Minnesota. The topic being why it hasn’t worked. It is worth the read. Angry Bear has covered Kip’s message on healthcare in an effort to show why healthcare costs are out of control. “The commission recommends the new […]

Decline in continuing claims, stability in initial claims suggest downward pressure on the unemployment rate

 – by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog Initial claims in the last week rose 9,000 to 221,000, while the four week moving average increased 2,750 to 214,250. With the usual one week lag, continuing claims declined 19,000 to 1.791 million: On the more important YoY% basis for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 2.3%, while […]

Does consumer sentiment correlate with the real economy?

 – by New Deal democrat “it should be no surprise that Biden’s poll numbers have recently improved.” No big economic news today, so let me update a correlation with information from last Friday’s personal income data. To wit, is consumer sentiment about the economy tied to any real metric? With a lot of noise, it does […]

February JOLTS report: soft landing-ish? – except for a noisy jump in layoffs

 – by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog The JOLTS report for February showed stabilization or slight improvement to all but one of its components, generally suggesting, well, stabilization in the overall jobs market. Starting with the monthly changes, job openings (blue in the graph below), a soft statistic that is polluted by imaginary, permanent, and […]

END THE TAX ON Social Security. A Good Idea?

by Dale Coberly No. It’s not. Here is why. The argument for ending the tax on Social Security benefits seems to be that “it is a tax on a tax”, double taxing, and not fair. Even the good guys believe this. But they are wrong. Consider,  You pay income taxes on your ordinary income.  Then […]

Monthly data starts out with slightly positive news in manufacturing, slightly negative in construction

 – by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog As usual, the new month’s data starts out with information on manufacturing and construction. To repeat what I have said often recently, these are the two sectors I am paying particular attention to for forecasting purposes this year. The ISM manufacturing index has been a good leading […]