by New Deal democrat Short term economic forecast through mid year 2022 My short-term forecast for the first half of this year is up at Seeking Alpha. This forecast is based on the same system I have successfully used since before the Great Recession. Most forecasters, deliberately or not, cherry pick data points to fit a […]

RJS, MarketWatch 666 CPI Rose 0.5% in December on Higher Prices for Food, Shelter, Clothing, Vehicles, & Furniture; Annual Inflation at a 39 Year High The consumer price index rose 0.5% in December, as higher prices for food, clothing, shelter, new and used vehicles, airline fares, furniture, and laundry appliances and were partly offset by […]

“I Quit” Micheal Smith, The Ethics and Economics of Farmers Markets It is early, frosty mornings such as these where I would love to sleep past 6am, enjoy a cup of tea, watch the news and think about what is on the ‘has to get done list’.  These days I think about fence work, discing in […]

This podcast came to me by way of Kip Sullivan, the expert on Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage. We have had a running dialogue for about a year now. Most recently, Angry Bear featured Kip’s PNHP Single Payer Healthcare Financing Series detailing why healthcare is expensive in the US. I have put up numerous posts […]

Is The Downward Sloping Phillips Curve Back?  Maybe. We have gotten so used to the idea that to the extent it is even meaningful it is flat at an inflation rate of 2%, nobody talks about the old textbook Phillips Curve that slopes down.  But there is some evidence that out of all these pandemic […]

RJS Reports: Producer Prices Rose 0.2% in December; Record 6.9% Annual Increase in Core PPI; Record 7.9% YoY Increase for Final Demand Services The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.2% in December, as average prices for finished wholesale goods fell 0.4%, while margins of final services providers were 0.5% higher . . […]

Weekly Indicators for January 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. In addition to Omicron, commodity prices and interest rates are having an impact across the board on the long and short term forecasts and the nowcast. (Just for spite, two weeks ago some […]

December real retail sales tank; industrial production also declines; consumer slowdown seems nearly certain   – by New Deal democrat Two days ago, in connection with consumer inflation, I reiterated that: “we certainly are at a point where a sharp deceleration beginning with the consumer sector of the economy is more likely than not.” I […]

Continuing unemployment claims make new 45+ year low – by New Deal democrat New claims increased 23,000 last week to 230,000. The 4 week average of new claims increased 6,250 to 210,750: The big increase is likely affected by seasonality. It’ll be another week or two before we can tell if there is any real change […]

Commenter and Blogger RJS, Focus on Fracking, Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a new 19 year low; commercial crude inventories fall to 45 month low, total oil supplies lowest since January 20th 2012; implied gasoline demand at 11 month low The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week […]