I wrote a post about the velocity of M2 money supply. There were comments that the M2 money supply is a dying indicator. Well, let’s look… There are 3 indicators for the money supply, M1, M2 and MZM. M1 is the narrowest. MZM is the broadest. M2 is in the middle. “M1 is the money […]

Using my model of core inflation, nominal rates, profit rates, labor share & capacity utilization, here is a graph of the present situation. The estimated natural real rate for this graph is 1.7%. The vertical dashed green line shows where capacity utilization is now at 75.2%. The solid red line shows the path of the […]

I have been presenting a new model to explain the forces around inflation. (link1, link2) Antonio Fatas poses a very good question. You can lower interest rates, but can you raise inflation? “But if monetary policy is being successful we expect inflation expectations and growth expectations to increase. Both of these forces should push long-term […]

In case you missed it, like I did, the velocity of the M2 money supply is declining more quickly. That normally indicates that the economy has taken the turn toward an eventual contraction.

I continue to explore the model that I posted this morning extending a relationship between inflation and capacity utilization. The model shows that labor share would determine the most balanced inflation target… and the inflation target then becomes variable depending upon the how labor share changes in the economy. Remember, it was once thought that […]

I have been in the workshop building a model for inflation and other things. It builds upon the model for forecasting the profit rate cycle. And also upon the model for the relationship between inflation and net profit rates. The model was provoked by a video from Khan Academy on youtube. This model has many […]

What do you get if you mix Donald Trump and Donald Duck? Just a bit of humor for the late night crowd…

I see that Ben Bernanke talks about how the Fed’s views of the economy are changing, in particular that the Fed funds rate at the Natural level of production (Terminal as Bernanke puts it) is being revised downward in the past year. This agrees with my research into effective demand. I see that the Natural […]

“Stressing output is the key to improving productivity, while looking to increase activity can result in just the opposite.” Paul Gauguin Policy seeks to increase activity in spite of weak effective demand for output. So is it any surprise that zero-lower-bound monetary policy has not normalized the economy? If only economists would understand Effective Demand […]

More character defining moments of a psycho person. He says if he loses Florida 3 months from now, because polls show him winning now… It is proof of voting fraud and there will be widespread civil disobedience and a constitutional crisis. This guy is dangerous. If Bernie made a deal with the devil by supporting […]