Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Manufacturing and construction vs. the still-inverted yield curve

 – by New Deal democrat at the Bonddad Blog Prof. Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser makes the point that the yield curve is still inverted, and has not yet eclipsed the longest previous time between onset of such an inversion and a recession. So he believes the threat of recession is still on the table. And […]

Industrial and manufacturing production improve for the month, but 16+ month fading trend continues

Originally Published at The Bonddad Blog Industrial production is an indicator that has faded somewhat in importance in the modern era since China’s accession to normal trading status in 2000. Before that, a downturn in production was an excellent coincident indicator for a general downturn in the economy. Since then there have been several downturns, […]

Good news and bad news Thursday: the good news is jobless claims . . .

 Bonddad Blog – by New Deal democrat This morning brought us both good and bad economic news. The good news was that initial jobless claims continue very low, at 209,000, down -1,000 from last week, while the four week average declined -500 to 208,000. Even better, after major downward revisions, continuing claims rose 17,000 to 1.811 […]

The most potent labor market indicator of all is still strongly positive

The Bonddad Blog  – by New Deal democrat On Monday I examined some series from last Friday’s Household survey in the jobs report, highlighting that they more frequently than not indicated a recession was near or underway. But I concluded by noting that this survey has historically been noisy, and I thought it would be […]

February consumer inflation: the tug of war between gasoline and shelter continues

February consumer inflation: the tug of war between gasoline and shelter continues The Bonddad Blog  – by New Deal democrat Last month I described the trend in consumer inflation as an ongoing “tug of war” between energy and housing. Energy (mainly gasoline) peaked in June 2022 and made its low in June 2023, while housing, […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators March 4 – 8 2024

Weekly Indicators for March 4 – 8 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Generally speaking, there is a demarcation between consumer-oriented data, which is in the main positive, and manufacturing-oriented data, which is mainly weak or negative. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring […]

February jobs report: Household Survey is downright recessionary and the Establishment Survey is decidedly mixed

February jobs report: the Household Survey is downright recessionary, while the Establishment Survey is decidedly mixed  – by New Deal democrat In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing; and more specifically:  Here’s my in […]

Initial jobless claims continue positive, suggesting good news for the tomorrow’s February unemployment rate as well

Initial jobless claims continue positive, suggesting good news for the tomorrow’s February unemployment rate as well  – by New Deal democrat The most important reason I cover initial jobless claims is because they are an “official” short leading indicator. They are also very good at forecasting the short-term trend in the unemployment rate in the […]

January JOLTS report shows more (relative) weakening, downward revisions to 2023

January JOLTS report: shows more (relative) weakening, downward revisions to 2023  – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS report for January showed only minor changes compared with December, all to the downside, but was somewhat overshadowed by mainly downward revisions to all of 2023. Starting with the monthly changes, job openings (blue in the graph below), […]