Clinton-Becerra 2016
I am not going to say nobody ever thought of this pairing, but a quick trip around the Google-sphere got me a paucity of results. So I am going to stake my claim here.
Why Becerra? (Or for some Becerra who?)
Chicano. California. Ambitious. Young. CPC (Congressional Progressive Caucus). The guy ticks off so many boxes that it is ridiculous. Particularly the CPC piece. Clinton needs the support of the Warren Wing of the Democratic Party. And once you go down that list you just don’t find many leaders who can step up AND provide the needed electoral balance. Love me some Raul Grijalva (CPC co-chair). But he is not even going to deliver Arizona. Also admire Keith Ellison (CPC co-chair). But in the immediate wake of Obama the possibility of actual installing a person who is actually a Muslim as well as being black from a State that Hillary would win hands-down anyway (Minnesota) is not happening. And you can go down the list of CPC’ers and not find anyone who is enough opposite to Hillary to make for balance.
My second prediction would be Martin O’Malley. But face it, the guy is not about to whip up excitement in places where you need the votes. Of course I am not only probably wrong, I am almost certainly wrong, and for reasons AB readers will be happy to point out in Comments all of an idiot, a loon, and a fecklessly idiotic loon.
Okay. But you heard it here first. (Unless you are WAY deep in the fever swamps of the polit-Toobz)
I’m more inclined to think she picks Julian Castro, but the next vice-president of the US will certainly be a Latino. (Even if it should be – God forbid – Marco Rubio.)
Hillary winning California? Isn’t that a given? Maybe she should pick a Jewish woman to sew up the Jewish/woman vote! I am thinking Julian Castro from San Antonio. If the DNC really wants to turn Texas blue this is the place to start.
Becerra is, you know, meh. How shall I put this? He’s from LA Central and is not appealing to the typical bleeding-heart middle class/techie types that abound in the Bay Area. (Disclosure–I was one of this group for 32 years.) He is all about LA Mexican-American politics. Go North, and there are more people from Silicon Valley, other Central/South American countries and the Carribean. The Chicano electorate will vote for the Dems no matter what. Maybe what you need in CA is a high-powered woman Dem with a good liberal track record a la Sen. Boxer. Yeah, whazzhername would do. Although, you know, the newer CA Dems are all kinda meh. Sigh, NancyO
It’s probably right that Hil is going to be the Democratic candidate. If so she’ll likely beat any Republican now in the field. Vegas has her 9 to 10.
I’m a registered Dem and not all that happy with this outcome. What does Hil stand for? On policy matters she will be a clone of Obama. A centrist that actually does not get the support from either side.
Is Hil the equal to Bill? When Bill was 46? I don’t think so. Hil will be 69 when she takes the oath. That ties Ronnie as the oldest in history.
Hil is connected, but with whom? Wall Street? Big Money? Today we find that she is taking it in from overseas.
Put it this way, if Liz Warren made an announcement today:
“I’ve changed my mind. I’m running for President.”
Hil would be way behind Liz in the polls the next day. Hil is the obvious candidate, but she’s not all that well liked.
WSJ on $
http://www.wsj.com/articles/foreign-government-gifts-to-clinton-foundation-on-the-rise-1424223031?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsThird
Little John I personally like the (Texas/American) Castro Brothers more than Becerra. Except for the fact that they are from Texas, which isn’t going for Hillary and for the really unfortunate fact that they are the ‘Castro Brothers’. You probably fervently wish that the information level of the American people was higher than all evidence shows and the FSM knows I do too. But there will be hoar-frost on the hinges of Hell before you see campaign posters saying “Vote Clinton-Castro”.
Similar considerations rule out a Hilary-Other Woman ticket, still less a Hilary-Jewish Woman ticket. It doesn’t put any place in play.
Now I see the argument that California is a lock for Team Blue. But Becerra will resonate in places like Colorado and New Mexico and Iowa that are at least capturable.
Plus the dynamic in California is a little iffy. Right now Northern Californian Kamala Harris looks to be a lock for Boxer’s Senate seat. Which might well leave So-Cal Chicanos and other Hispanics a little disgruntled. On the other hand having Harris AND Becerra sitting in two of the three top spots on the Democratic line might pay big dividends down ticket. Because there are way too many Congressional Republicans from California and some at least are vulnerable to a California Wave.
And Nancy I would repeat the point a different way:
” Maybe what you need in CA is a high-powered woman Dem with a good liberal track record a la Sen. Boxer. Yeah, whazzhername would do. Although, you know, the newer CA Dems are all kinda meh.”
Because we got one of those running. For Boxer’s seat. (And she might well be the same woman as “whazzhername”).
Kamala Harris has the potential to be the West Coast Elizabeth Warren in the Senate. Except both younger and check some boxes Warren doesn’t. I think turnout among NoCal liberals of most every gender and identity is secured already. Bring on the SoCal East and Central LA folk with Clinton-Becerra. Because there will be PLENTY of Clinton-Harris photo ops/posters around.
I have no suggestions and agree that Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico will likely be close and that Hispanic turnout may well carry the day, but I expect that the real battleground will again be the Midwest with Florida. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin are all states that have a number of Republicans in high places that went for Obama but could tip if African American turnout was down and the GOP comes up with a non crazy candidate. We all know about Florida. A Hispanic on the ticket could help in all those states, but maybe not as much as somebody else. And I do not see a problem with a woman-woman ticket. It is not going to cost the Democrats any female votes and I doubt that any man who was willing to vote for Hillary for president would change his mind because the running mate was also a woman.
I think it will be Sherrod Brown’s, if he wants it. Then again, that’s probably just wishful thinking on my part.
I never thought of the optics about “Clinton-Castro”! That’s kind of funny. I was joking about the Jewish thing. I think that demographic been wrapped up in the Dem column for a long time.
Beverly–Wish we could be so luckily that Sherrod Brown would be on the ticket. Great Senator and real Dem.
Bruce–Becerra is almost completely unknown outside of California. So is Villaraigoza who is also sorta kinda into money or gives that impression. Mr. V gets a double meh.
Terry–You’re probably right that the race will come down to the Mid-West and Florida. You’re not going to impress the Puerto Rican Dems in FL with some Mexican American dude from LA. After all, Hispanics in FL have their own Disney World. π NancyO
Nancy, Joe Biden wasn’t well known outside political circles. Or Cheney. Or Dan Quayle. In fact at the beginning of a campaign it is often common for all kinds of elections for no one to know any name other than the incumbent. That is why the results of Name Recognition polls often come as such a shock to political junkies like me. I mean who DOESN’T have a formed opinion on John Bolton? Well there are probably lots of people who is asked their opinion of “UN Ambassador John Bolton” would reply “I don’t like the UN” (not knowing nobody hates the UN quite like our boy John – that is why he was picked).
I fully understand that Becerra is not a household name. That is why I staked my claim here. Because what the hell if lightning DOES strike it would be nice to have something to point to.
Bruce–I understand your point. Yes, we all read it first on Angry Bear!! Anyhow, my deal is anyone but a Republican. NancyO
Thanks Nancy. That’s exactly why Clinton will probably pick a milquetoast VP candidate. She’s already got the Progressive wing’s votes locked up. When the general election rolls around so-called Progressives will line up and hit the “D” button no matter who she picks for VP. Anyone but a Republican. Maybe that should be Hillary’s election slogan.