Health Care Thoughts: Reform Status According to Really Smart People

by Tom aka Rusty Rustbelt

Health Care Thoughts: Reform Status According to Really Smart People

So after two days in rooms full of top notch front line experts, and two nights sleeping on a couch in a hospital waiting room, I offer a list of key take-aways.. This is reporting only, not advocacy. Some of my opinions may vary (not much). I avoid the nitty-grittiest of operational details. So…..

The amount and complexity of work to be done in the next 24 months is crushing and impossible – expect delays or sloppy rollouts.

Scale is everything, small providers will get crushed. Impacts on rural health care uncertain, so…

Consolidation and integration is the critical path. Some bad outcomes likely.

The Obama administration is incapable of producing regulations and guidance papers on time (in Washington a little late is considered on time).

Providers are preparing cuts both permenant and “cliff” cuts.

The amount and complexity of IT work through the system is staggering. Data is the new currency of health care.

Setting up the exchanges is a massive and messy task, even in the enthusiastic states. Letting the feds install “plug-and-play” may become a good option for many states.

Some large public companies are seriously considering dropping health insurance and paying the penalty (stunned me). No decisions yet known.

Winners, sorta in sequence:

Health IT – vendor companies and geeks
Health lawyers – transaction and regulatory
Health executives – the “talent wars” are going full blast
Health CPAs, finance officers and consultants
Physician executives
Nursing executives
Bureaucrats and regulatory

Losers

Physicians – mostly (depends on many factors)
Nurses – hands on care givers
Therapist and ancillary providers
Hospital support staff

Getting a child ready for college? Push them towards…..

IT, health emphasis
Health care administration
Medical records administration / health informatics
Medical coding (good jobs with 2 year degree)
Accounting and finance, health emphasis
Actuarial science

Private health insurers may be really big winners (oops). Some private health insurers are building primary care networks and ACOs.

There are some intesresting and even exciting geriatric care innovations morphing out of the Obama administration, academia and providers.

The “old elderly” are using huge amounts of Medicare resources, innovations may cut usage with the same or better care.

Hospital capital spending is going wild as a market share play, just what we don’t need.

So, now to plug through a thousand or so pages on operational and regulatory details. Did I mention the Obama administration writes a lot of long and largely incomprehensible regulations and guidance statements?

Interesting times ahead.

Tom aka Rusty

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