Note to ‘Pubs: The Demographic Tidal Wave is Hitting the Beach
Or: Even a Stopped Clock is Right, Eventually
For quite a while I’ve been explaining the rabid, frantic vehemence of tea partiers and Republicans in general with a single visualization:
They’ve got their backs against the seawall, and a massive, overwhelming demographic tidal wave is looming over them.
The terror that situation provokes among old, white, rich, “educated” male types is enough to mobilize a hell of a lot of political activity and influence (especially when it’s coopted and channeled by tens of billions of dollars in corporate propaganda). This goes a long way toward explaining the backlash of the 2010 election.
But desperate maneuvering can’t stop the tides.
This demographic notion got its first major airing in Judis and Teixeira’s 2002 The Emerging Democratic Majority, which seems to have been a little ahead of it’s time. But as Jonathan Chait suggests in ”2012 or Never,” the demographic clock may finally be ticking up to high noon.
The modern GOP—the party of Nixon, Reagan, and both Bushes—is staring down its own demographic extinction.
Despite assorted and sadly wishful pooh-poohing on the right (“the Republicans will just rebrand themselves”; “second-generation Latinos will be more conservative”), the demographic reality is displayed quite starkly in two graphs from a recent Pew report (PDF; hat tip Ruy Teixeira).
Say “buh bye.”
Nevertheless, as Robert Reich reminds us: for the present, “the loony right” remains “a clear and present danger.”
Cross-posted at Asymptosis.
I agree that this is the one key reason they are doomed. Its amazing that they actually had a shot at this group and Rove got them in board in 2004 but I think the drop from 21006 to now is directlctly due to the tea party and R wing attack on illegial immigrants. They are actually cutting their own throats and it couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch. Karmas a bitch
Eric in Austin
The only thing is, will the current bias towards Democrats last beyond the first generation (due to Democrats favoring spending on programs that benefit immigrants)? My wife’s family is 4th gen Latino and mostly votes Republican, largely because they are all tax-PAYERS, not tax beneficiaries. Also worth considering that CA prop 8 (the anti-gay marriage amendment) passed with a majority of immigrant & Latino votes. It was an awful amendment, but it goes to show you cannot pigeonhole voters on the basis of race alone.
“will the current bias towards Democrats last beyond the first generation “
We’ll just have to clean that clock when we come it.
Update Mar. 5: “According to the latest survey from Fox News and Latin Insights, 73 percent of Latinos approve of President Obama’s job performance, compared to 35 percent approval for Mitt Romney, 13 percent for Ron Paul, 12 percent for Newt Gingrich, and 9 percent for Rick Santorum. What’s more, in a head-to-head matchup with the president, none of the GOP candidates would win more than 14 percent of the Latino vote.”
Well, as Stalin used to point out it doesn’t matter so much who votes but who counts the votes. The desperation in the Republican 2012 campaign is driven in large part by the realization that the only way they can continue to have any hold on any power is to trim the voter rolls. Hence, all of the efforts at the state level to push people out of the voting booth this year with bogus voter ID requirements. I’m sure that the Republicans would reinstitute the poll taxes around the country if they thought they could get away with it. For now, voter suppression will rule Republican thinking for the next four election cycles. It’s all they’ve got and they know it. They need only a little more time to finish plundering the Treasury and they’ll settle for that. Besides, they know they’re main constituency won’t be around post-2020 so who cares.
The Democrats ain’t what they used to be. When put to the test, the Gang of Six and their Republican pals are putting together an austerity proposal to the tune of a 4 trillion dollar reduction in federal spending over the next 10 years. The Dems have toned down their support of immigration reform, probably in response to the sluggish recovery. So, the coming demographic explosion will certainly favor the Dems initially. But, first people have to be able to vote.
Without changes in the law regarding long-term undocumented residents, it’s hard to see how the popular sentiment for Dems gets turned into votes. The old white guys like those who run things around here in SWGA ain’t the last of their kind. HARM is right in regard to long term changes in voting preferences in the South West and Southern Plains. It’s much harder to see how the East Coast and MidWest will go in the long run. NancyO
uh, Steve
the “right” who have always been “the rich” if not always white
have always understood they faced a demographic tidal wave, called “the masses” or “the poor”
and they have always succeeded in ruling by force or fraud.
once in a while a genius like Roosevelt, or even Jefferson, shows them they can rule by extending a little hope to the masses and not drive them to desperatio, but over the long haul fundamental laws of behavior set in, and the accumulated weight of injustice and reaction make it hard to sustain the hope or respond to hard times creatively… that is, without resort to brute force.
there could of course be an interlude, either a Reign of Terror, or something as mild as Shay’s rebellion
but at the end of the day “the rich” will rule again… even if they are the “new” rich.
and of course it is the “old” who rule the rich. even the rich aren’t dumb enough to let the kids run things.
i hadn’t really noted the bit about “old” white and rich. i had not realized this was all Oedipus complex, but I should have. I really should have.