More on Michigan Voting
The U.S. Election Atlas shows the Michigan county by county results for the general election in 2008. Note that they have inexplicably reversed the normal Red-Blue color coding. Contrast those results with the 2012 Republican primary results.
In the Lower Peninsula, the counties that went for Romney in a big way generally went for Obama in a big way in 2008. Wealthy, densely populated Oakland county went for Obama by 56% to 42% (660,000 total votes.) Romney crushed Santorum there by 50% to 29%. (116,000 total votes.) Romney tended to win the counties that were close between Obama and McCain four years ago. Along the west coast, though, many counties that were solidly in Obama’s camp in 2008 went overwhelmingly for Santorum in the Republican primary. But these counties had big margins on Tuesday with small turnouts.
Commenter CSH at Johnathon Bernstein’s blog remarked, “I can’t recall seeing the rich-poor, East-West gap in that state as strongly represented as last night.” CSH also pointed out that Romney won the State by 32,000 votes. Coincidentally, he won Oakland County by 32,000 votes. The rest of the State was a wash.
The Upper Peninsula as always, has its own different story. Santorum carried all but two counties, and generally by large margins, while the the ’08 vote was split among counties between Obama and McCain. The primary was closest in the eastern section of the U.P., which McCain carried in ’08. But vote counts in the U.P. on Tuesday were very sparse – in the range of a few hundred to about 3,000 total, per county.
It’s far from one-to-one, but Romney’s results vs Santorum more or less parallel Obama’s results vs. McCain four years ago. Romney’s best showings were in places where he has virtually no chance in the general election. Santorum’s best showings were in less populated areas that are likely to vote Republican, regardless.
The other significant factor is voter turnout. Romney and Santorum together collected 787,420 votes, Statewide. In 2008, McCain got over 20 2 million votes in Michigan, and lost the State by 16%.
Despite the hype, the stark differences between the two front runners, and Romney’s alleged home field advantage, the total turnout was less than half of McCain’s votes in ’08 this looks like a lot of less Republican apathy than I first thought, but still a significant lack of interest. Can that bode well for their prospects in November? (Corrections made in last 2 paragraphs.)
Quick comment Given that the population of Michigan is only 9.9 million, I think you added 1 to many zeros to McCains vote total. Wikipedia says 2,048,639 votes for McCain.
I was going to say…
General election thoughts…..
Obama needs to take Wayne County / Detroit overwhelmingly.
This fall Detroit may be controlled by an emergency financial manager, or be in outright bankruptcy. A significant portion of the Democratic hierarchy is either under investigation, indicted or convicted of various corruption offenses (Robert Ficano and the Wayne County establishment is themain target at the moment).
IF the Democratic machine in Wayne County is wounded, what happens to turnout?
The poor dears. The GOP only had 4 years to prepare for this in a shitty economy. Voila.
What is the election all about? Romney wants to get his fingers on the nations treasure so he can cut his taxes by 20% what else is on his agenda? Santorum wants everyone to be just as saintly as he is, he wants to be a modern day Savanorola. Both of them wage war against women and labor and the average Americans. Romney does not talk as if he knows economics, his expertise is LBO, lowering wages and firing workers.
All the problems we have, poverty, homeless families even with children, health care, education where the Republicans propose to have teachers or students replace the oh so overpaid janitors, closing down of public schools in a nation where basic education is mandatory (still), wanting to charge $100 per semester for school bus transportation, happening in Hutto,Tx. Lack of early childhood development , day care for working families, No funding for Head Start, cutting funds for low income women’s reproductive health care, high infant mortality rates, the dying cities like Detroit and Flint and all the little mill-towns. They don’t even acknowledge the problems. The greatest country on earth in their eyes.
Not one of these clowns is fit to govern, they stand for nothing, have no agenda for the nations future. The only thing they care about is the privilege to fly in Air Force One, they sure don’t want to work for it.
Maybe they will do us all a favor, they will make the party croak and get lost.
Yup. Detroit itself is very largely black, and of course they won’t wanna bother to vote for Obama against Romney because, well, all those official and former officials are under indictment or criminal investigation. The current mayor, Dave Bing, of course, is not, and there probably will be a voter referendum on the ballot to repeal the emergency-manager law, a law that most blacks throughout the state hate and that will increase voter turnout in Detroit. And of course Obama’s campaign folks and the state Dem party are too incompetent to run an effective get-out-the-vote thing. And the economy of most of the rest of Wayne County is seriously dependent on the fortunes of the Big Three auto companies, and has loads of current and retired UAW members. But, y’know, well, all those federal indictments …. Uh-oh.
Yup. Detroit itself is very largely black, and of course they won’t wanna bother to vote for Obama against Romney because, well, all those official and former officials are under indictment or criminal investigation. The current mayor, Dave Bing, of course, is not, and there probably will be a voter referendum on the ballot to repeal the emergency-manager law, a law that most blacks throughout the state hate and that will increase voter turnout in Detroit. And of course Obama’s campaign folks and the state Dem party are too incompetent to run an effective get-out-the-vote thing. And the economy of most of the rest of Wayne County is seriously dependent on the fortunes of the Big Three auto companies, and the county has loads of current and retired UAW members. But, y’know, well, all those federal indictments …. Uh-oh.
Paul Krugman had a terrific column in the New York Times (so what else is new?) about a week ago in which he pointed out that Romney’s economic plan flies in the face of his own economic advisors’ statements. The advisors’ statements make clear that they (the advisors) believe that the policies Romney is advocating would devastate the economy. Krugman says Romney surely agrees with his economic advisors, and that no economists of any repute disagree.
I just don’t see how, in light of this, Romney could even possibly win the November election. I mean, setting aside the mendacity issue, isn’t Romney supposed to be the guy who’s so expert in business issues? What happens when next fall, Romney’s own economic advisors’ words are placed in front of him? What does he say? That they’re wrong and he’s right? And what happens when the follow-up question is: On what ground does he believe this?
Zero?!? That’s nothin’ . . .
Thank’s for the catch. It’s correcred now.
JzB
He does not appear to think about anything, does not consider the consequences of what he sa, just as long as he can get a vote. He does not learn either, he knows what he says is on tape, the Blunt amendment is a good sample, he changed course within hours and just claims he did not understand the question. He does not connect with people because he does not care about people. His flip-flopping is nothing but plain old lying.
STR:
If Detroit did not exist, Michigan would be the largest vegetable farm in the nation. Detroit is still and always will be the largest port of entry for Canada. Detroit does need another bridge to increase commerce. It is too bad the rest of the red neck state is partially racist and against cities and poverty.