A Bleg – Private Consumption Multiplier
from Mike Kimel
Hi. For a project I’m working on, I need to find estimates of a private consumption multiplier. That is to say, the multiplier resulting from changes in private consumption rather than, say, from changes in gov’t spending or taxation. Any pointers? Please let me know in comments are by email (mike period kimel at gmail.com) Thanks.
Don’t have one, but…Ray Fair’s model is available for free, and I’d guess that has a set of multiplier estimates.
http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/wrkbook/xamapa.pdf
page 15 or so.
And there’s this, from a pretty reputable guy:
http://www.freepatentsonline.com/article/Brookings-Papers-Economic-Activity/222313533.html
Report
Subject:
Gross domestic product (Analysis)
Author:
Hall, Robert E.
Pub Date:
09/22/2009
“Table 1 shows the results of the regressions for output and consumption. The top row shows that, over the entire sample 1930 through 2008, the output multiplier is just over half, with a standard error of 0.08, and the consumption multiplier is close to zero, although slightly negative, with a standard error of 0.03. The higher precision of the consumption multiplier estimate arises because the change in consumption has a much lower volatility than does the change in real GDP.”