BW on Soc Sec IV: A History Lesson

A blast from the past. The first Report I downloaded was the 1997. It didn’t report on Productivity, instead the lead number was Real GDP. So we will run with that. What were the numbers under Intermediate Cost?:
1997: 2.5%
1998-2006 2.0%
2010 1.8%
2020 1.3%
Hecuva job! A median prediction of a permanent 48% slowdown in growth rate by 2020. Not exactly a confidence vote in America. What happens if we turn to Low Cost?
1997: 3.2%
1998-2001: 2.7%
2002-2003: 2.6%
2004-2006: 2.5%
2010: 2.3%
2020: 1.8%
Ultimate: 2.2%
These are optimistic numbers?
Because this is coming off a data series as follows:
1991: -1.0%
1992: 2.7%
1993: 2.3%
1994: 3.5%
1995: 2.0%
1996: 2.5%
So we have a supposedly median projection that suggested a rapid and permanent dropoff to 2.0% in the very next year (1998), or a 20% decline and a supposedly optimistic projection suggesting that a 10% dropoff from the proven 1994 result was the best possible result for the current year of 1997, and a 19% drop for 1998 and following was too. You didn’t have to be Rebecca of Sunnybrook Farm to think that maybe the outlook wasn’t quite so bleak as these guys suggested. 1996’s 2.5% was considered a pretty good number but it was hard to think that it had established some sort of ceiling. If you just extended that 2.5% through the future most of the gap would be closed. Because then as in all years to 2007 Low Cost produced a fully funded Social Security system with flat Trust Fund ratio (see comment for 2008). (Figure I.H3, page 26 of above link).

Okay what were the actual numbers and the new projections from the 2008 Report: Table V.B2?
1997: 4.5%
1998: 4.2%
1999: 4.4%
2000: 3.7%
At which point I was pretty God damn confident we would pull this off. But along came Bush.
2001: .8%
2002: 1.6%
2003: 2.5%
2004: 3.6%
2005: 3.1%
2006: 2.9%
2007: 2.2%
But still on balance smashing 1997 Low Cost. And what do we need from Low Cost going forward?
2008: 3.4%
2009: 3.5%
2010: 3.5%
2011: 3.3%
2012: 3.1%
2013: 2.9%
2014: 2.7%
Ultimate: 2.9%
Few people would probably predict 3.4% for this year. On the other hand who really believes that 2004 numbers will never, ever be repeated? In your optimistic model? Discuss. And don’t forget to show your work.